I think Jonathan Miller at Trend Czar may have largely hit the nail on the head with this post last week, captioned "Don't be fooled." The gist, in my opinion? The financial system has stabilized for now but it is in recovery mode yet. Some provocative points he makes are:
1. Banks are building huge reserves with government encouragement while not lending much, hoping the economy will turn enough so it can write down some of its bad loans to reasonable levels. Then lending can get back to reasonable levels.
2. The people closest to the toxic asset problem don't want us to know how bad things really are.
3. Government is skirting around the issue of why it is not forcing more lending, all the while printing more money.
I don't want to get overly gloomy either (2017?), but I have had some of these questions in my mind for a while now too, and I also got a new thought or two from this post.