A 6.6 cap = a bad market. How times have changed....

Boy, have they. Retail Traffic has a great story about insitutional investors hedging their bets in 2008.The thoughts from ING Clarion, are that the days of cap rate compression are finally over and that investors are no longer deploying capital indiscriminately. Gee, what gave you the clue, Holmes?Here's the good stuff. The crystal ball from ING is that this is probably another V-shaped downturn, with values bottoming at a 6.6 cap (remember the days of 9s and 10s, anyone?) in Q3 and turning around in 2009. I know that you are only talking a 60 bp change in rates, but when they are that low...

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Bottom? What's a bottom?

Jordan Crouch asks whether we are near the bottom of the market and provides some support of that. And Michael Mandel weighs in with G&E's thoughts regarding leasing:Commercial real estate fundamentals lag the economy, but one market indicator in particular provides an early warning sign of impending changes. Office sublease space has increased by 12% from its recent low in the second quarter of 2007, ending the first quarter of 2008 at 81.9 million square feet. During the last downturn in 2001, sublease space more than doubled after three quarters of softening. Thus, the office market is...

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Sam sure doesn't pull punches

Sam Zell calls the estimated difference between the $6 billion Harry Macklowe paid for the EOP Manhattan properties and the $7 billion he paid for them "Macklowe stupidity.'' Ow. You must have a thick skin to play at that level.While people do not want to overpay:The pace of commercial real estate deals may pick up as U.S. pension funds such as the California Public Employees' Retirement System move money into real estate, Zell said. "I don't think they can afford to sit on the sidelines and get 2 percent from Treasuries when they need 7 percent'' of returns to pay retirement benefits, he said...

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The world's best law firm disclaimer

My blog disclaimer is OK, and hopefully somewhat witty.But if really you want to see something funny, at least by lawyer standards, click here. Patrick Lamb, another BigLaw refugee, started his own law firm a few months ago, and his website is now up and fully functional. I especially liked the crack about tax lawyers for the IRS Circular 230 disclosure.I like his billing ideas. But most of my transactional clients like paying me by the hour. I hope this changes with tim...

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Big Boxes doing well? Makes sense to me

I know we keep hearing about plans to cut, cut, cut and recession this, recession that, but MarketWatch says these retailers are still expanding.I keep seeing and hearing about LOI after LOI and lease after lease. Keep 'em coming. Certain boxes (Wal-Mart comes immediately to mind) thrive in these kinds of conditions as people cut back to essentials. (Maybe it is just like staying at a cheaper hotel or using generic brands, etc.)(Courtesy of Traffic Court...

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Rambling, semi OT weekend thoughts

Good infrastructure is a key to good, well-valued dirt.I am starting to think we need an Eisenhower-era level project to fix infrastructure problems, be it publicly or privately financed. Can our ridiculously school taxes go to roads instead? At least I use the roads.Where I live roads are literally crumbling. One main artery, US 45/52 from the Will County line north, is almost impassible. Yes, it is THAT bad, so much so that some have called for its closure. I found similar problems near O'Hare yesterday.The one good thing our current governor has done? Open road tolling.Are the rumors...

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Quote of the Day, Week, Month and Year?

"Amateur hour is over." So says Tony Thompson in this GlobeSt.com interview.He's so right in so many ways on this one. The interview was an interesting read. If I have time to give you more analysis later I will but I am buried in work and meetings today. Telling thought: no NNN investing, because he says that is something you should see G&E/Triple Net about. (Well, he also admits he has a "very limited" noncompete.) I think I know another reason he started this and left the old shop which I will not disclose here. I told a good friend my thoughts over three years ago, and we'll see...

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Spire misses tax deadline -- but they aren't the first to do so, either

Tom Corfman has a story at Crain's this morning stating:Garrett Kelleher failed to pay nearly $430,000 in property taxes due nearly two months ago on the proposed site of the Spire, even as the Irish developer was launching a lavish, five-city Asian tour to trumpet the massive skyscraper.Corfman goes on:The 2,000-foot-tall Spire project would challenge even the most seasoned developers. And the failure to manage a routine task like property taxes raises questions about Mr. Kelleher’s ability to complete a multi-billion dollar project that demands the highest level of concentration.The reason?...

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Most sectors holding steady in Q1...is this a bottom?

Hard to tell. But Moody's, through NREI, reports that most sectors held their own in the first quarter, with limited service hotels being the notable exception. You could plausibly argue that this is a sign that things are not bad, or you can argue that things are just starting to move down and that banks will own a lot of dirt soon. Case in point: a lunch with a friend recently who predicted that many, many buildings on deals s/he worked on will be going back to the lenders soon. Heck, look at the Macklowe portfolio -- and now he's willing to sell 50% of his company since no "quality" bids...

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What the heck is a "small firm" anyway?

Super-blogger Susan Carter Liebel had a good post yesterday about solo practitioners and small law firms winning not on price but on value provided to their clients. She cites a story from The Complete Lawyer by Marcie Shunk captioned "Welcome to the Age of the Smaller Firm."The thesis of this article? Small law firms are the real wave of the future.That's all fine and dandy, until you read on. Susan's post is spot on, as is the general concept of the Shunk post, but I do have to take some definitional exception to the term "small firm." It seems to me that, according to this story, anything...

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Net, gross, modified, gross...huh?

Someone near and dear to me asked me to draft an office lease for some property that person owns. I received a hand written, one page term sheet with a base rent figure.What freaked me out until I read it more carefully was the treatment of gross and net items in the lease. Those of you in the know (probably all of you if you are bothering to read this far) are aware of leases such as bond leases, net or triple net leases, gross leases, modified gross or plus-E leases, and the like. (You can find what I think is a good recent summary written by Michael Mandel here. New York is a whole ballgame...

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OK, I can finally talk about this one

I have said time and again that I do not make news, I just report it. So, if I know about a deal (whether I am working on it or not), I don't leak it. Not my job, and I do not even want to think about the privilege and confidentiality issues that abound. (I also don't want my clients worrying about it.)The good news is that GlobeSt.com reported today that a deal I worked on last year, the redevelopment of the New City YMCA property in Chicago, is moving along. Roundy's Supermarkets, which we discussed here recently, has signed an 80,000 sf lease. (Full disclosure: I did not negotiate that...

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Tony Thompson didn't stay away long

Triple Net Properties/NNN Realty Advisors merges with Grubb & Ellis, Tony Thompson steps aside, and guess what? He's right back in the game with Thompson National Properties, L.L.C.The NNN world has been very slow lately. I have some thoughts as to why but I cannot share them in public right now. It seems like this play will be more of a value-added company rather than a NNN play, which is a smart thing to do. Thompson should have the savvy and the capital (both in equity and ability to raise money and find loans) to do wel...

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The woes of a Libor bounce

If you are in my business, you know about Libor, which is an acronym for the London interbank offered rate. For those of you not familiar with it, Libor, is a benchmark for fixing loan rates around the world. It has increasingly been used in commercial real estate over the last few years over the old standard of US Treasuries. There are Libor "contracts" of varying lengths, such as 30, 90 and 180 days that we use as a benchmark interest rate. So, in other words, if I have a loan that is "6-month Libor + 225" that means the interest rate is 2.25% above the rate for a 180 day Libor contract...

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So much to say, but....

Jordan Crouch has two great posts today on lending; one on brokers and the other on rates. Just go to his blog and look at them.I saw an ad in the paper today mourning the loss of Kimco founder Martin Kimmel. David Bodamer has more.Edward Roski has his latest proposal for bringing the No Fun League back to Los Angeles, this time with a 75,000 seat stadium in the City of Industry. Good luck. Apparently they only have to file a supplemental EIR, but even if someone wants to move a team to LA does anyone care anymore? With so much else to do (including USC and ucla football), I'm not so sure.Why...

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Hey, hey -- some good, balanced journalism!

Robert Manor is now covering the commercial real estate beat for the Tribune. So far I have liked was he's been writing, but today's column might be his best yet. Why? Objectivity! Instead of gloom and dooming, he lays out the facts in a story with this very cool hed: Good enough equals great in real estate.Sometimes average isn't so bad, especially amid economic uncertainty.Several commercial real estate industry observers have issued reports in recent days, examining how the Chicago market is faring. What they found in general: Chicago real estate markets may not be outperforming, but neither...

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Remember, there are some optimists out there

I tend to be fairly optimistic about the market improving this year. But then I represent people who don't eat if they don't deal. You keep reading about people poised to jump into the market when the time is right, but those deals are still holding. Then you have Jeff Brown, who sees a lot of his people in the world applying Murphy's Law and O'Toole's Corollary. Jeff hits yet another home run. As I am sure I have said before, I also think sometimes people who write about these things tend to want to push the negative for many reasons, follow a herd mentality and tell people what they want...

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Loan floors and portfolios

This is something I have not seen in a long while. Jordan Crouch reports that most lenders are putting a "floor" on loans in the 6-6.25% range. So, no matter how low 10-year T-Bills (or, presumably, LIBOR, which is what I am usually seeing quoted these days) go, rates will not follow. Jordan does not see any sign of a bottom yet.What pickup I am seeing is on smaller deals. Portfolios? Not much at all, although there was this story about a 22-property industrial deal that closed the other day in town. I've dealt with the buyer, TA Associates, before. They are very good investors and leave...

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New blog shoutout - Laine Wagenseller and SoCal Real Estate Law

I was doing a little browsing this evening and noticed that my law school classmate, Laine Wagenseller, has started a real estate blog aptly named SoCal Real Estate Law.I haven't spoken to or seen Laine since law school, but I remember him as a very bright and good guy. It is therefore easy for me to recommend that you check out his blog, and, in particular, this post on what I also think is a very real problem: the decline of accountability when people make bad or stupid business decisions.Bravo, Laine! And welcome to the fray. Glad to see you are doing well in the worl...

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All I can say is "Wow"

If you could see this now....I know this property is in Bucktown. I know Bucktown is hotter than hot for development. I know prices can be high there.But $767 per square foot? I repeat: wow. If the national retailers can come in with high rents, and with parking available on this site that makes it a premium location, on top of a great corner, this could be a good deal. But boy, that's going to be an interesting pro forma. And you still have to get it through the alderman and zoning and into a PU...

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Multiple bottoms in the market? Financial Terrorism? Interesting analysis

Some analysts are saying that the real estate market is at its worst since the 1980s (ah, the RTC days) and are predicting there may be "multiple bottoms" over the next 12-36 months.Why?Just when things start to look better, another financial bomb explodes on Wall Street. The shock waves might keep real estate managers and investors reeling for years to come, experts say. “It's like terrorism,” said Jack Foster, managing director and head of Franklin Templeton Real Estate Advisors, a real estate fund of funds firm in New York.I'm no analyst, but I don't buy that. First, I'm not sure this is...

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How about golden arches on top while you are at it?

I've always been intrigued by Chicago's Marina City, the corncob-looking twin towers at State Street and the Chicago River designed by Bertrand Goldberg and built in 1964. As a purist, I did not like it when Smith and Wollensky came to town and put a New York style facade on the ground floor. I just hated the look. Now I hear that Dick's Last Resort (which I like, by the way) wants to move there too and add outdoor seating and, well, its unique brand of service to the mix.Come on, people. Landmark this iconic building already. And put Dick's where it belongs, more north in River North or keep...

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It's not easy being B....

Just catching up on vacation reading here...if you want a quick primer on B-piece buyers and their (critical, at least these days, since the B has the right to kick out deals) role in the CMBS market, then check out this story from the Journal last week. You'll learn somethin...

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The news from Manhattan

I have to take a quick vacation break to relate this story to you from the Big Apple.Could the news be better? Yes, because leasing activity is down in the last quarter, roughly 10% from the same time last year. And vacancies are up, from 5.7% to 6.1%.The news here to me is that things are not a whole lot worse. Maybe things need to catch up? Maybe the latest casualties are not priced in? Ummm....well....or maybe the market is not all that gosh-awful. For instance:Cushman & Wakefield said that in the first quarter, overall rents jumped more than 25% to $67.13 a square foot from the...

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My Name is David, and I am a BlackBerryaholic

As I am sure I have said here before, I am addicted to my CrackBerry. This article is just another sad reminder.It was (VERY SLIGHTLY) easier to put it away back in the days of the pager-like, non-browser, no cell phone devices. (Yes, I go back that far. I've had one since 2000, when dinosaurs roamed the earth.) Now that it is all of the above it is harder to do.I noticed the story said you should not take it with you on vacation. I am about to leave on a trip. I won't take it with me but I am hoping not to pull it out every ten minutes either. (It was also easier to put away when there...

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More Zell on prospects -- and mixed messages

Even though he sees the U.S. residential market turning around, Sam Zell's now also saying that he's not seeing significant opportunities for real estate in the developed world. His bet right now? Housing developments in Egypt, Chile, Mexico, China and Brazil. I'm guessing he means the mega-returns that opportunistic guys like him want.But here's the somewhat better news:"I don't expect to see any dramatic change in cap rates or the viability of high-quality office investments in the U.S.", he said, adding the pace of new developments had slowed sharply since the summer, which would help...

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Legal thought of the day: wear and tear

I cannot tell you how many times I have drafted a legal document involving real estate that says something to the effect that the property/premises will be returned or delivered in the same condition as the date of the contract, reasonable wear and tear excepted (or words of similar effect).Here's some advice about this in the context of a Chicago apartment. In short, it is in the eyes of the beholder. Usually, scratches, paint, a little carpet wear -- that's OK. Nail hole? Ordinary. Fist hole? Not. HVAC? It depends on who was responsible for maintaining it; life expectancy and other...

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Condotels = Pets.com?

Thanks to Deal Junkie for pointing this out.The Journal had a story the other day that compares condotels to dotcoms that crashed a few years back. I took a pass a year ago on the concept. And that was not the first time either. I remember look at condotels at a resort in Scottsdale back in 2001 and again in Florida in 2005.Why did I look? A friend was doing well with one in Orlando but that was back in the earliest of days. Something just did not seem right about the whole thing. Finally, a savvy real estate agent told be to be very careful about this, to the detriment of her commission(!)And...

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$386 a foot - not bad for a "down market"

Here's a little Chicago tidbit I stumbled across: a Hines L.P. fund just picked up One North Wacker Drive from a German investment fund advised by RREEF for $540 million, or $386/sf.Let's see: great location, excellent tenant mix (and 98% occupancy), LEED certification...a couple of years ago a building like this might have been buried in some mega-portfolio deal and no one would have talked much about it. But as a single asset deal, I mention it because it is, in my view, a decent price for a great A-building in a market that is supposed to be in the tank. Here's the difference of this "bad"...

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Here's the latest reminder on salaries

First of all, I hope no one minds the new layout too much. I needed a change and I probably will again soon. I'm planning to retain someone to customize the blog for me and give it a "clean" look.Moving right along: The Tribune's caught up with the trend of reporting on the disparities between high-earning lawyers and their counterparts with this magazine story today, with stories of lawyers working second jobs at bars, people feeling they wasted three years on a degree and other tales, some of which I've seen before.Some stylebook errors aside (referring to firms such as Cadwalader, Wickersham...

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Totally OT - Dear Michael and John:

We don't know each other, but you were there today for a stranger. That stranger was my mother, who blew a tire today on a narrow section of freeway driving between a concrete barrier and a semi. She could have been hurt or killed. You stopped your motorcycles, took off your helmets(!) and worked feverishly to help her get back on the road, again, in dangerous conditions. You would not take a dime from her, saying that you hoped someone would do the same for your mother. You did, however, accept Mom's (and her friend's) thanks, prayers and a hug. And I will always remember that preconceived...

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Can't we just say the "R" word already and be over it?

Guess what? The economy ebbs and flows. Sometimes it is good and sometimes it is not so good. Get used to it. Bernanke keeps dancing around whether we are in a recession or not, and I guess I can't blame him. I would not want my watch at the Fed starting that way either. (And I am not a Bernanke hater either.)Assuming it is true, and election year or no, I'd rather just say the "R" word and be over with it. Why? Kevin Kingston reminded us why back in November. (In short, the last four recessions were over or almost over by the time they were announced.) And we're seeing that again. ...

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And they're not alone

It isn't just Shorenstein with dry powder. Here comes Blackstone back for more: they've raised another $10.9 billion for real estate. What is the next target?If you are in the business and this is not telling you something, then you might want to change careers. Hold on tigh...

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Shorenstein ready to start buying...hmmm....

One thing I have had many savvy investors tell me is to sell when there is a buying frenzy and buy when there is a selling frenzy. I'm not sure we are in a selling frenzy, but we are in a down market right now thanks to a lack of credit.According to Deal Junkie, Shorenstein Co, which has been a seller in the market for a while now, is apparently poised to buy. Why? Dry powder and signs of distress, according to an interview with Doug Shorenstein originally in the San Francisco Chronicle.Zell sees changes afoot, investors smarter than I'll ever be are watching for the right deals...yeah, another...

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